Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 19.216038 21.892346 24.769862 28.089317 31.808396 35.842064 40.543471
2025-02-02 15.488862 19.177486 23.443115 28.722419 35.061349 42.407214 51.543184
2025-02-09 13.232215 17.291697 22.211625 28.579613 36.566321 46.211177 58.695746
2025-02-16 11.380498 15.613428 20.964022 28.170966 37.564176 49.324176 65.084806
2025-02-23 10.165829 14.547276 20.290153 28.293833 39.071819 52.982432 72.176342
2025-03-02 9.241681 13.743542 19.842043 28.607271 40.761931 56.881049 79.704687
2025-03-09 8.390056 12.934536 19.282934 28.671634 42.047329 60.232550 86.595904
2025-03-16 7.559798 12.063533 18.542262 28.386910 42.774337 62.797378 92.471898
2025-03-23 6.992775 11.520285 18.211597 28.635004 44.226578 66.390413 99.898611
2025-03-30 6.656836 11.292770 18.315890 29.506591 46.602578 71.374722 109.503594
2025-04-06 6.086099 10.640084 17.716103 29.254380 47.262792 73.867147 115.562467
2025-04-13 5.324740 9.607805 16.441587 27.855886 46.070429 73.522298 117.352378
2025-04-20 5.068591 9.403309 16.482070 28.556154 48.198606 78.318897 127.186087
2025-04-27 4.837004 9.220364 16.542218 29.287372 50.410954 83.345614 137.605926
2025-05-04 4.461813 8.748901 16.080053 29.112509 51.130298 86.050183 144.492680
2025-05-11 4.084118 8.237709 15.508693 28.706669 51.430552 88.081236 150.374395
2025-05-18 3.827914 7.926716 15.259318 28.828391 52.602497 91.543326 158.670460
2025-05-25 3.623823 7.695455 15.132032 29.148309 54.115420 95.610745 168.099562
2025-06-01 3.399913 7.405297 14.874671 29.213407 55.179254 98.963818 176.466792
2025-06-08 3.147314 7.035084 14.440531 28.923916 55.592766 101.224476 183.075828
2025-06-15 2.985019 6.833268 14.307418 29.176231 56.973830 105.172020 192.672254
2025-06-22 2.910320 6.806713 14.507643 30.062776 59.540103 111.257382 206.153009
2025-06-29 2.708971 6.493429 14.123823 29.806240 59.985426 113.646266 213.301809